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India to grow at 7.4% this year, outpacing China

Aided by a 7.5% expansion during October- December, Asia’s third-largest economy will this fiscal see the fastest pace of growth since 2010-11

Indian economy will grow by 7.4% this fiscal, outpacing China to become the world’s fastest growing economy, after a revision in the method of calculations.

Aided by a 7.5% expansion during October- December, Asia’s third-largest economy will this fiscal see the fastest pace of growth since 2010-11 when it achieved 8.7%, even as some doubts lingered on the revised methodology.

The growth in gross domestic product (GDP) in 2010-11 was calculated based on factor cost which has now been changed to constant prices to take into account gross value addition in goods and services as well as indirect taxes. Besides, the base year has been shifted to 2011-12 from 2004-05 earlier.

Last month, the Statistics Ministry had pegged the previous year’s growth at 6.9% as against 4.7% estimated previously, a revision which led to some economists including RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan seeking more clarity.

“We do need to spend more time to understanding the GDP numbers,” he had said on February 3 after releasing the bi-monthly monetary policy of the central bank that retained the forecast of 5.5% GDP (calculation based on old method) growth in 2014-15.

“We will be watching the February 9 release with great care and dwell deeply into what we see there. At this point this is premature to take a strong view based on these GDP numbers,” he had said.

Industry chamber Assocham said the revision was confusing as “investment is yet to revive, consumer demand is not returning with a significant pace despite a sharp reduction in crude oil prices.”

The advance estimates released by the government further said the per capita net national income in 2014-15 is estimated to be Rs 88,538 showing, up 10.1% as compared to Rs 80,388 in 2013-14.

The sectors contributing to the advance estimates, include higher manufacturing growth at 6.8% and most of the services, including financial, real estate, hotels and transport growing over seven% in the fiscal.

However, agriculture is pegged at 1.1%, much lower than 3.7% achieved in the last fiscal.

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Economic growth in India firming up: OECD

In a reflection of improving growth prospects, the CLI for India inched up to 99.4 in Dec

India’s growth is “firming up” while most major economies, including China and the US, are seeing stable momentum, according to the Paris-based think-tank, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In a report released on Monday, OECD also said the euro area is seeing tentative signs of positive change in growth momentum.

The analysis was based on its Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, in December 2014. In a reflection of improving growth prospects, the CLI for India inched up to 99.4 in December 2014 compared to November 2014.

“The CLI for India indicates firming growth while in Russia the CLI continues to point to a loss in growth momentum,” OECD said in a statement.

India’s CLI has been rising since August 2014 when it stood at August 98.9. In November last, the same stood at 99.3.

After slowing to sub-5 per cent growth in the previous two financial years, Indian economy has started picking up. The GDP expanded by 5.7 per cent and 5.3 per cent in the first two quarters of current financial year (which ends on March 2015), respectively.

Based on the updated base year for measuring national accounts, Indian economy registered 6.9 per cent growth during the 2013-14 period.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2013-14 has gone up following adoption of the new series with base year 2011-12. The rate of expansion was estimated at 4.7 per cent under the old series that had 2004-05 as base year.

The base year was last revised in January 2010 and goes under revision every five years.

As per OECD, the CLIs in December 2014 indicate stable growth momentum in the OECD area as whole and “in some of the major economies, including the United States, Canada, Japan, China and Brazil”.

There are “tentative signs of a positive change in growth momentum in the euro area, particularly in Germany and Spain,” it added.

OECD is also a grouping of 34 mostly rich nations.

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Moody’s analysts expect India’s economy to grow at 3-year high of 6% in Q3

Moody’s Analytics, a research firm of the Moody’s group, on Friday projected India’s economy to grow by six per cent in the October-December period of 2014-15. Official data for the quarter is to be released on Monday.

“An upturn in fixed investment should drive better GDP (gross domestic product) growth,” Moody’s Analytics said.

If the rate of growth in the quarter is six per cent, it will be the highest since the December quarter of 2011-12 — a three-year high.

Moody’s estimates are based on the older definition of gross domestic product (GDP) and 2004-05 as the base year. After some recent changes in calculation methodology, 2011-12 has now been set as the new base year and GDP, unlike the earlier method, includes indirect taxes net of subsidies.

On Monday, the government will release advance estimates for 2014-15, as well as for the first three quarters of the current financial year — on the basis of the revised methodology.

By older computation, India’s GDP grew 5.7 per cent in the June quarter and 5.3 per cent in the next, aggregating 5.5 per cent growth in the first half of the year.

However, gross fixed capital formation, a proxy for investment, grew at a slower pace of 0.02 per cent in the September quarter, against over seven per cent in the June one.

On new GDP numbers, Moody’s Analytics said it was still digesting the details and the numbers to be released on February 9 would provide further clues on where the economy currently stands.

By revised methodology, India’s GDP growth was revised to 5.1 per cent for the June quarter and 6.9 per cent for the September quarter of 2014-15.

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GCC market cap up 1.9% to Dh3.78 trillion

>Market cap of all indices, except Abu Dhabi and Qatar, ended higher for Jan

>The combined market capitalization of GCC bourses rose 1.9 per cent month-on-month (MoM) to $1.03 trillion (Dh3.78 trillion) in January 2015 despite drop in equities in line with oil price, Global Investment House said in a report.

The market capitalization of all indices, except Abu Dhabi and Qatar, ended higher for the month.

At $510.2bn, Saudi Arabia was the largest contributor (49.5 per cent), followed by Abu Dhabi and Dubai ($198.7bn or 19.3 per cent), and Qatar ($177.9bn or 17.3 per cent). Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain together contributed $143.3bn.

The Kuwaiti investment bank said GCC markets ended mixed in January 2015.

The TASI gained the most (up 6.5 per cent MoM) as a sharp increase in oil prices at the end of the month boosted sentiment, followed by MSM30 (3.4 per cent MoM) and KSE (0.6 per cent MoM).

Other GCC markets ended in the red due to prolonged concerns over a dip in oil prices. The US Energy Information Administration’s report showed that crude stockpiles in the US surged to an 80-year high during the month, which dented sentiment. However, positive earnings offset the fall. QE was the biggest loser (-3.1 per cent MoM), followed by DFM (-2.6 per cent MoM), ADX (-1.6 per cent MoM), and BSE (-0.2 per cent MoM).

Trading in GCC markets declined in January 2015. Volume traded dropped 29 per cent MoM, with all markets recording a fall. Value traded plunged 27.1 per cent MoM due to a decline in value traded in all bourses. Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the UAE were the major losers. Saudi Arabia was the biggest contributor ($41.7bn) to the total trading value ($51bn).

Long-term growth to remain intact

GCC markets ended mixed in January as weak sentiment due to falling oil prices was offset by positive earnings and value buying across sectors.

Among sectoral indices, Banks remained the key gainer, largely due to positive earnings.

Recently, Kuwait’s government projected a deficit in its 2015 budget, indicating that a decline in oil prices would impact the GCC countries in the short term.

GCC produces about 20 per cent of total global oil output and accounts for nearly 35 per cent of global oil exports.

However, Saudi Arabia’s government reiterated that it would continue to spend into non-oil sectors to diversify its economy away from oil. This was reflected in its 2015 budget and reaffirmed on January 30, 2015, when the new King Salman ordered two months of salary bonus to all public sector employees among several other expenditure as well as reorganization in top government positions.

In terms of valuation, the price earning (PE) ratio of GCC markets is at 9.8-18.2x, lower than its key emerging markets peers.

Long-term valuations of GCC markets remained intact, following the inclusion of the three largest GCC markets – the UAE and Qatar in May 2014 and Saudi Arabia expected in H1 2017 – on the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.

Qatar is expected to attract significant infrastructural investments as Fifa President Sepp Blatter reaffirmed that the World Cup 2022 would be held in the country. The UAE markets would record strong growth with the hosting of Dubai Expo 2020. Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman would follow their larger peers, with gradual improvement in non-oil revenues.

UAE – Abu Dhabi

Abu Dhabi’s ADX declined 1.6 per cent MoM in January, following a 3.1 per cent MoM fall in December. The decline in Real Estate and Banks was partly offset by strong performance from Investment & Financial Services stocks.

The index started the month by posting declines due to falling oil prices, but soon recovered in the second week. In the last week of January, the market was impacted by volatility in global markets. In terms of corporate performance, Islamic banks reported strong growth in earnings and improved asset quality.

Tasweek, the Abu Dhabi based property investor, delayed the launch of its IPO due to volatile markets and expects to execute it in Q1 2015.

However, the company has still not decided whether to list in Dubai or Abu Dhabi. The planned IPO of Massar Solutions is likely to be delayed due to weak market conditions amidst volatility in regional capital markets and subdued oil prices.

Trading on the ADX fell in January. Total trading volume fell 66 per cent MoM to 1.8bn shares from 5.1bn shares in December and the total value traded declined 54.6 per cent MoM to $1.1bn.

At the end of January, market capitalization of the companies listed on the ADX fell 2 per cent MoM to $111.4bn. Total market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies fell 2.4 per cent MoM.

UAE – Dubai

The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) index fell 2.6% MoM in January, compared to an 11.9% MoM decline in December. The decline was largely ascribed to a fall in the Real Estate & Construction and Investment & Financial Services sectors, partly offset by gains in the Transportation sector.

The index started the month on a weak note due to global cues and subdued oil prices. However, it recovered sharply, with the index being the top global performer on January 7. This was ascribed to a slowing of the crude oil price decline.

Towards the end of the month, an announcement by the Dubai Courts of an expanded list of more than 150 cancelled developments in the Emirate weighed on the Real Estate & Construction stocks. This contributed to the overall correction in the market. However, strong corporate earnings enhanced investors’ confidence, limiting the downside.

Trading on the DFM declined in January, with volume down 30.4 per cent MoM to 8.2bn shares. The value traded fell 38 per cent MoM to $3.8bn.

At the end of January, the market capitalization of companies listed on the DFM rose 2 per cent MoM to $87.3bn. The total market capitalization of the top 10 listed companies fell 0.4 per cent MoM.

For more details reach us at [email protected]

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FATCA System Goes Live In Jersey

Jersey-based financial institutions are now able to register with local authorities in preparation for the submission of the first reports under the US Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA).

FATCA requires financial institutions outside the US to report information on financial accounts held by their US customers to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Jersey has concluded an intergovernmental agreement with the US to enable financial institutions to submit data to a central authority in Jersey, which will then share that data with the Internal Revenue Service.

A test platform has been available to local financial institutions since the beginning of 2015 to test their file formats and familiarize themselves with the FATCA return process. Now financial institutions can register on the live system and submit information required under the FATCA rules. The information required under FATCA must be submitted by June 30 each year.

The Minister for Treasury and Resources Alan Maclean said: “The launch of the online reporting platform means that our financial institutions will be in the best possible position to ensure that they meet the June 30 reporting deadline for FATCA and avoid the 30 percent US withholding tax. It further demonstrates that Jersey is strongly committed to supporting international initiatives designed to improve tax transparency.”

Financial institutions in Jersey should have already registered with the IRS in order to obtain a Global Intermediary Identification Number (GIIN). When registering in Jersey they must enter the GIIN and other information, including a designated point of contact.

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Italy To Alter Controversial New Self-Employed Tax System

Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has indicated that the new reduced tax regime introduced for Italian self-employed individuals with effect from January 1, 2015, will be improved, following protests concerning the lower benefits offered compared with the previous regime.

The new 15 percent fixed tax regime is available for self-employed individuals, including entrepreneurs and sole traders. Eligibility depends on a business’s annual turnover, with maximum turnover ranging from EUR15,000 to EUR40,000, depending on the sector in which the business is engaged. It replaces their liability to individual income tax (federal, regional, and local), value-added tax, and the regional tax on production.

The taxable amount, as a proportion of turnover, is predetermined by the authorities, depending on the industry in which the business is engaged. Under the system, the 15 percent rate applies to between 40 percent and 86 percent of a business’s turnover, depending on the sector.

The new regime has drawn criticism from those classified as professionals, as the EUR15,000 threshold is considered too low, and the pre-determined notional profit margin for this sector, on which the 15 percent rate applies, is the highest for professionals at 78 percent of turnover.

Major grumblings have also been heard when comparing the new regime with the tax rate of the previous system, which was fixed at five percent and based simply on individuals’ business turnover up to a maximum of EUR30,000. In addition, self-employed individuals that are already subject to that regime may elect to continue to be taxed under that regime – an option that is not available to those over 35 years of age.

Renzi has already called the new fixed rate regime “a resounding own goal” for his Government and has confirmed his willingness to change its terms. It appears that the first opportunity to do that will be within the framework of the draft tax reform law (delega fiscale), which is to be reissued by the Government after a Cabinet meeting on February 20.

In addition, during that meeting, it is expected that the Government will also look to reduce the incidence of the programmed hikes in self-employed social security contributions from the present 27 percent to 33 percent by 2018. Those substantial increases have also prompted protests.

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Indonesia Expected To Launch Tax Amnesty

In an effort to expand the taxpayer base, the Indonesian Government is expected to announce the introduction this year of an amnesty for those who have failed to make tax declarations.

In the context of low oil prices and continued global economic uncertainty, the Government has already announced that it will focus on improving tax compliance rates in a bid to raise Indonesia’s relatively low tax-to-GDP ratio to fund infrastructure and welfare spending policies.

Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro has now confirmed, in a recent interview with The Jakarta Post, that the Directorate General of Taxation will look to increase the number of taxpayers in Indonesia by way of an amnesty.

It has been indicated that the amnesty, which would entail a legislative amendment, would not be available for those who have already been identified as non-payers, but would waive penalties and the risk of prosecution for those who declare and pay all their due taxes. It would also be accompanied by increased penalties for non-compliance discovered in the future.

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Eurozone private sector grows at fastest rate in six months in January

Firms cut prices at steepest rate for nearly five years

London: The Eurozone private sector grew at its fastest pace in six months in January as firms slashed prices at the steepest rate in nearly five years, a business survey showed on Wednesday.

Data compiler Markit said the survey, carried out mostly before the European Central Bank announced a near-trillion euro quantitative easing programme to revive inflation and boost the economy, pointed to first-quarter growth of 0.3 per cent.

That matches the median forecast in a Reuters poll last month and, if realised, would be faster than the 0.1 per cent economists have pencilled in for the end of 2014.

Markit’s final January Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good indicator of growth, stood at 52.6, higher than a preliminary estimate of 52.2 and December’s 51.4.

“The Eurozone enjoyed a positive start to 2015, as growth of economic activity accelerated. Among the big-four nations, output expanded in Germany, Italy and Spain, but the downturn in the French economy extended into its ninth month,” Markit said.

Lowest reading

However, that growth came at a cost to margins. An index measuring output prices fell to 46.9 from December’s 48.1, its lowest reading since February 2010, suggesting firms were slashing prices to drum up trade.

Prices dropped a record-equalling 0.6 per cent last month as commodity prices, Brent crude in particular, tumbled.

Price-cutting helped drive service industry activity up at the fastest rate in five months. The services sector PMI rose to 52.7 from December’s 51.6, ahead of the flash 52.3 estimate.

Confidence about the ECB’s QE programme and signs of growth in new orders accelerating helped lift a gauge of optimism among service firms by the biggest one-month margin in over five years, to 63.9 from 59.7.

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US strengthens trade engagement with India via Trade Policy Forum

The US says it strengthened engagement with India through the US-India Trade Policy Forum and secured the historic Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) at the WTO after overcoming an impasse with India.

“In November, the United States with India and other WTO members overcame an impasse in the Bali Package to allow the full implementation of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA),” the US Trade Representative said in its year-end review.

“The TFA is the first multilateral trade agreement in the WTO’s 20 year history, and will reform global customs practices and substantially reduce the costs and time associated with goods crossing borders,” it noted

“The efficiencies generated by customs reforms in the TFA will significantly reduce the costs of trading for WTO members, developed and developing countries alike,” the review said.

Some estimates, it noted, suggest the global economic value of the new WTO deal could be worth $1 trillion.

The US had also strengthened engagement with India through the TPF, the premier bilateral forum for discussion and resolution of US and India trade and investment issues.

In November, USTR Michael Froman led a US delegation to the TPF in Mumbai, the review noted.

Earlier, in February, the US challenged before WTO India’s domestic content requirements for it National Solar Mission affecting US solar product exports.

In addition to the WTO consultations, the US has engaged India on its concerns regarding the NSM over the last three years, including in bilateral fora such as the TPF and the US-India Energy Dialogue, and at the WTO in various committees, it said.

The review said it had also prevailed on numerous Indian challenges to US countervailing duties to address what it called India’s “unfair steel subsidies.”

In December, the WTO Appellate Body rejected the vast majority of India’s appeals seeking additional findings on US regulations and determinations, it said.

The US had in October also prevailed against Indian ban on US agriculture products – such as poultry meat, eggs, and live pigs – allegedly to protect against avian influenza.

The US poultry industry, which directly employs over 350,000 workers and consists of nearly 50,000 family farms – had been particularly affected by India’s restrictions, the review said.

The WTO has agreed the panel report will be adopted or appealed in January 2015.

The review noted USTR had concluded an Out-of-Cycle Review of India to evaluate progress toward achieving meaningful, sustained and effective engagement on IP issues.

India, it said had made useful commitments, including to institutionalise high-level engagement on IP issues, to pursue a specific work programme and to deepen cooperation and information exchange with the US on IP-related issues under the TPF.

The US, the review said, looks forward to the 2015 Special 301 Review process, which will provide the next formal opportunity for a thorough review of India’s environment for IP protection and enforcement.

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PM Narendra Modi promises fair tax system to investors

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told leading global investors here on Tuesday that his priority for India is to establish global benchmarks in areas like governance, transparency and taxation.

At the ‘India Investor Summit’, organised by the world’s largest asset manager BlackRock, Modi said that the government’s priority is “growth and jobs” and added that there is rising interest in India and “we have to accept that responsibility”.

As many as 21 major global investors which manage more than $11 trillion worth investible assets participated in summit earlier in the day. The list of institutional investors included asset managers, insurers, pension funds, and official institutions-Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ($770 billion), Australian Government Future Fund ($95 billion), Temasek ($175 billion), Canadian Pension Plan Investment Board ($205 billion), Hong Kong Monetary Authority ($400 billion) and Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency ($755 billion).

Pitching the India growth story, Modi promised the investors a fair, predictable and consistent tax system and growthfocussed economic policies.

Modi said that infrastructure development is one of the best routes to create jobs for the youth. He told top honchos of leading equity firms and government funds such as Ace Limited, AIA Group, APG, GIC Singapore, PSP Investment Board and California State Teachers Retirement System that India needs to both expand and upgrade its infrastructure.

The PM said the goal of Affordable Housing for all by 2022 would in itself provide a huge boost to the economy. He pointed out that the government is focussing on skill development that would fulfil not just the Indian requirement, but also the global requirement.

Union ministers Arun Jaitley, Nitin Gadkari, Suresh Prabhu, Dharmendra Pradhan and Piyush Goyal were present at the dinner.

During his US visit, Modi held one-on-one meeting with BlackRock chief executive officer (CEO), Boeing chairman, IBM president and CEO, GE CEO, Goldman Sachs chairman and KKR CEO. A senior official disclosed that BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had promised Modi that he would visit India with a team of leading investors and explore the scope for new opportunities in the country.

Jaitley, along with other senior ministers, also pitched the India growth story before the investors and invited them to invest in the country.

For more details reach us at [email protected]

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